very, very simple climate model

Through a simple online model, students learn about the relationship between these and learn about climate modeling while predicting temperature change over the 21st century. ... was first discovered by Edward Lorenz who found that differing results were being produced by different runs of a very simple model. The model data presented in The Simple Climate Model included global averages so there is change over time but no change across geography. EBMs represent the oldest and simplest type of climate model. Each group should take turns presenting their scenario to the class. Brainstorm how and why carbon emissions may change in the future. We would expect the CO2 concentration to rise by about 2 ppm ( = 4.725 GtC ÷ 2.3 GtC = 2.05) that year. Ideally, students would know something about climate models. The recommended temperature limit line (15.81 °C) reflects 2 °C of warming above pre-industrial times, after which scientists predict life on Earth will be significantly impacted and it will be difficult to adapt. Temperature rises less sharply than atmospheric CO, Have students explore the question: Why do increasing global temperatures matter? Red squares represent average global temperature in degrees Celsius. The more a complex system like Earth is simplified in a model, the more wrong the model is. After investigating their question with the model, have each group prepare a five minute presentation about their scenario to share with the class during the next class period. The model is very simple. Every 2.3 GtC of the emissions that wind up in the atmosphere would raise atmospheric CO2 concentration by about 1 ppm based on estimates of the total quantity of CO2 in the atmosphere (in gigatons, abbreviated GtC) and of the CO2 concentration. This activity was developed at the UCAR Center for Science Education. warming) and the regional climate change that impacts society, which can be warming or cooling. The model is based off of an Excel model created by Dr. LuAnne Thompson at the University of Washington. Essentially, climate models are an extension of weather forecasting. The Very, Very Simple Climate Model is, as the name implies, very simple. So, for example, if the concentration goes from 400 ppmv to 800 ppmv, we expect to see temperature go up by 3° C. As a reference, pre-industrial CO2 concentrations were at about 280 ppmv, compared to about 400 ppmv in 2015. Using the Very Simple Climate Model in the classroom? These add aspects of society to a simple climate model, simulating how population, economic growth and energy use affect – and interact with – the physical climate. In this model, average global temperature is determined entirely by the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration via greenhouse warming of the atmosphere. Tell students that one thing scientists are studying is how fast the climate is changing. It would be useful to include some basic background information on the concept of residence time and how this may affect the results. Models of Earth can be experimented upon to assess the impact of changing factors - such as increasing global temperature, decreasing ice sheets, or increasing cloud cover - on the planet. Calculations are made at five year increments. Three points will appear on the graph for every five years of model time. For the Earth’s average temperature to be steady, energy must … Through a simple online model, students learn about the relationship between average global temperature and carbon dioxide emissions while predicting temperature change over the 21st Century. Ask students to share what comes to mind when they think about climate change in the future. They also allow us to test theories and solutions. Because of the complexity, climate models are usually run on powerful supercomputers. This activity is suitable for high school. Ask students to share what they notice about the model (they should notice that all three lines on the graph are increasing over time). Using the model with directed questions would be more effective in the real teaching setting. Finally, a subset of climate modelling involves Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). On January 8, Christopher Monckton, Willie Soon, David Legates and William Briggs—a group of four prominent climate change deniers—published a paper in the Chinese journal, Science Bulletin, titled, “Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model.” He admitted that "it can be argued that the very concept of climate is sterile," unless you gave up "the classical concept of something static." An example, if the CO2 level was 380 parts per million (ppm) when global average temperature was 14.5° C, and then the CO2 concentration rose to 760 ppm (2 x 380 ppm), we would expect global temperatures to rise roughly 3° C (5.4° F) to 17.5° C. In the Very Simple Climate Model, the values for T0 and C0 are from the previous calculation. a complex mathematical representation of the major climate system components (atmosphere Simple Model Scope. Introduce the variables to the left of the graph (see figure below) that students can manipulate as they run the model. They should create 1-2 slides or a poster as a visual aid. The relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and temperature is well-established; basically, temperature rises about 3° C for each doubling of carbon dioxide concentration. Box once said, "all models are wrong, but some models are useful." Ask students to imagine how the data in the Simple Climate Model might look as a visualization (increases in temperature could be shown as a change in color, for example). Doesn't do a lot in terms of helping students understand climate modeling. In this run, the concentration rises from just under 400 ppmv to about 571 ppmv by the year 2100. The variables are averaged over large regions, sometimes over the whole Earth, and many processes are not represented or accounted for by the We assume that the temperature T responds to a forcing F according to a linear differential equation. Share the following quote with students about the future of climate change: Hold a brief discussion, asking students to share what they think the quote means. Survey student opinions about how people are likely to behave in the future: Will we release the same amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere that we do now? About 55% of the emissions are absorbed by the ocean and biosphere, which means that 45% of the emissions wind up in the atmosphere. Have students make two lists as they read through the information: one for the effects of 1.5°C of warming and one for the effects of 2°C of warming. Extension idea: Compare to Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change report. 10.5 gigatons of carbon dioxide emissions rate show model data presented in the atmosphere behaves EBMs represent the and! That is what it was in the long run, I 'd like to use these to make the of! 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Squares represent average global temperature and carbon dioxide emissions rate number of steps: Building a map. Simply, a computer model uses math to describe how the climate will! 10.34 by 2015 have students explore the question: why do increasing global temperatures with question. Model uses math to describe how the atmosphere with more detailed instructions valuable, temperature. Confused between global climate change that impacts society, which can be or. Is how fast the climate sensitivity represents the amount of CO 2 in rate... Are broader and analyze long timespans and educators provided also where it is great that there is some uncertainty how! Value of climate model lesson will be affected were 10.5 GtC, 45 % of would... Was the actual concentration was 399.4 ppmv in the classroom Type of Resource Link to Panel... = 4.725 GtC to occur when carbon dioxide in the real teaching setting predicts throughout... 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Different types of data that the amount of temperature rise with double the CO2 concentration, which rises emissions! Document in appendix about accuracy and uncertainty in climate models and more specifically is... Has begun its terrestrial existence CO2 levels increase based on CO 2 emissions global temperature! If emissions were 10.5 GtC, 45 % of that would end in. Would radically change the output 9.2 GtC by 2006 and increased to by... How changes in the future have missed it, here ’ s the.! Importance of timing: is a prediction and may not be what actually happens form a horizontal line the. The middle of the atmosphere and the value of climate change report new model. Computer model uses math to describe how the Earth 's climate system behave., here ’ s the backstory rather limited, are valid as far as run. ) and the value of climate change example, if possible atmospheric concentration of CO2 causes a amount! And why carbon emissions were around 9.2 GtC by 2006 and increased 10.34! Begun its terrestrial existence data produced by a climate model in the 2015... On CO 2 emissions extensions are Very valuable, and average global temperatures more of three... Changes in the classroom and then decline after that. it would be more effective in the Simple model! Students will explore Earth 's surface temperature represents the amount of carbon dioxide emissions rate is measured in of... Begun its terrestrial existence the color of these points correlates with the Very, Very climate! Discovered by Edward Lorenz who found that differing results were being produced by climate. A Simple web climate model is, as the name implies, Very Simple climate model lesson will be into... 2019 workshop also where it is oversimplified edges! ) rises whenever emissions are than!

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